What could go wrong? Here are some sources of potential unwanted delays in FirstNet deployment

This interpretation provides states with little hope for financial gain while exposing opt-out states to significant financial risks—the costs of building, maintaining and upgrading a statewide network for 25 years, particularly if a chosen vendor encounters financial difficulties. This causes many to question whether the opt-out alternative is a practical choice for most states under this legal interpretation.

But FirstNet’s legal interpretation regarding opt-out rules is just an interpretation, not a law or a legal opinion that has been upheld amid legal scrutiny. Will states interested in the opt-out alternative challenge this interpretation in court, in hopes of securing a greater potential reward for building the RAN within their borders? If so, there is no way to predict the legal outcome, but there is little question that such court cases will take considerable time, particularly if the initial decision is appealed.

Meanwhile, the identity of any opt-out states could be critical to FirstNet’s nationwide contractor. If a state with one or more top wireless markets opts out, it could have a substantial negative impact on the strategic/financial benefits to the contractor. This would be particularly true if the contractor’s carrier partner was counting on having access to FirstNet spectrum to help address a spectrum shortage in a key market.

To FirstNet’s credit, the RFP includes considerable flexibility that allowed bidding teams to put an estimated value on each state and territory. If the winning contractor makes accurate projections—a difficult proposition when considering a 25-year period—the financial impact of any single opt-out state could be offset, but putting a value on the strategic benefits of having nationwide spectrum may be difficult.

Financial/Regulatory/Political issues: While the previously mentioned potential delays could be foreseen when the FirstNet RFP was issued, more recent developments may not have been anticipated.

Topping the list has to be AT&T announcing that plans to buy Time Warner for $85 billion, with half of that amount expected to be paid in cash. The deal has been the talk of the business world for the past two weeks, with many elected officials calling for considerable regulatory scrutiny of the transaction that could take a year to complete.

For some, FirstNet is a separate initiative and should not be affected by the AT&T-Time Warner deal, even if the AT&T team is selected as FirstNet’s nationwide contractor. But others question whether antitrust lawyers will agree.

Indeed, skeptics note that there already is considerable concern being voiced that AT&T will have significant market power in the commercial broadband-access and content markets, although it would not have a monopoly in either one. If the AT&T team wins the FirstNet bid, the corporate giant would be expected to be the predominant player in public-safety broadband access, as well.