Business-industrial LMR licensing struggles during first half of 2023, public-safety activity similar to 2022

Land-mobile-radio (LMR) licensing activity through the first of the year has occurred at a pace that is similar to last year in the public-safety arena and behind in the business-industrial sphere—so far behind that it could establish a new all-time low for the enterprise space at the end of the year.

One aspect of the statistics from the FCC’s Universal Licensing System (ULS) that should be noted is that the online database of spectrum licensing activity was down for several days in the middle of June. However, the ULS has been operational online for more than two weeks

Public-safety LMR licensing activity through July 10 includes 1,657 applications being filed—658 of which are seeking new licenses, with the rest representing modifications to existing licenses—with 1,589 being approved and 68 pending consideration.

If all applications are granted and the same pace was realized the rest of the year, the projected total of public-safety LMR licenses for the year would be 3,166.5. That figure would be similar to last year’s total of 3,151 licenses granted (one other public-safety application remains pending).

Last year’s public-safety licenses granted was the highest total since 2018—when 3,194 license were approved—but it was the fourth-lowest mark since the ULS online database completed its first full year in 2001.

As has often been the case in recent years, projections for business-industrial LMR licensing activity has been even more disappointing this year. Through July 10, the FCC claimed receipt of 4,950 business-industrial LMR license applications—3,111 of which were for new licenses—and had approved 4,493 of them, with another 457 still pending a decision.

If all of these applications were granted and the same pace was realized the rest of the year, the projected total of business-industrial LMR licenses for the year would be 9,459.4. This figure would be less than last year’s total of 9,697 licenses granted (one other application remains pending). Given a typical approval rate for the 457 pending business-industrial applications, the current LMR licensing pace likely would fall noticeably below the all-time low record of 9,425 applications granted in 2021.

Whether business-industrial LMR licensing activity will set its third all-time low mark in the last four years remains to be seen, but the first-half pace almost certainly will mean that less than 10,000 business-industrial LMR licenses will be granted for the fourth consecutive year.

As a point of comparison, the FCC issued at least 11,200 business-industrial LMR licenses during each of the first 16 years of the ULS online database. This would be the seventh consecutive year that threshold will not be reached, barring an unforeseen glut of LMR licensing activity during the second half of the year.

The projected 2023 business/industrial licensing total would represent a 68.0% decrease from the all-time high of 29,569 licenses granted in 2012—at the peak of the narrowbanding bubble—and a 48.8% drop from the 18,475 licenses approved in 2014.

Aside from this record-low 2020 figure, public-safety licensing has been very consistent during the past five years, with the annual total ranging between 3,000 and 3,200 in the four other years—3,194 in 2018, 3,059 in 2019, 2.098 in 2021, and now 3,151 (with 1 pending) in 2022.

The current projected figure of 3,166.5 would be within that range, although it would be somewhat lower with a normal approval rate for pending applications, but the past two years of growth in the public-safety space is certainly in jeopardy.

While the two consecutive years of public-safety licensing growth can be viewed as a sign of encouragement for the LMR industry, the figures still are near the bottom historically. In fact, these last five years of public-safety LMR licensing represent the five lowest annual totals in the 22-year history of the online ULS database.

The projected 2023 public-safety licensing figure of 3,166.5 would represent a 70.1% drop from the all-time high of 10,602 licenses granted in 2012—the prime year for narrowbanding activity—and a 37.7% decrease from the 5,082 licenses approved in 2014.