Upheaval

1 POWER: The dawn of a new day

A rash of man-made and natural disasters in the U.S. over the past few years has spotlighted weaknesses when it comes to powering emergency communications. Users usually turn to the staple generator when the commercial electricity grid goes down. When the generator runs out of fuel, as often happens in mega-disasters, power disappears, and users are left scrambling for an alternative.

However, generators may become obsolete in the coming years as researchers worldwide experiment with new power sources. For example, hydrogen-based fuel cells promise a long-shelf life and environmental soundness, as well as hours of operation for warfighters and first responders working in remote environments. Solar-powered mesh networks have become an ideal solution for enterprise and government users who demand hot spots in areas lacking power infrastructure. Recently, for example, environmental scientists chose solar power to support a mesh network in Yachana, Ecuador, which they used in an effort to track an endangered frog. Other vendors advertise solar mesh networks for golf courses, while social justice advocates depend on the technology to provide Internet access to underserved rural areas and third-world nations in order to bridge the digital divide.

Laboratories also are developing power alternatives based on more traditional technology. For example, a team of scientists at Georgia Tech is experimenting with nanogenerators and piezoelectrics theory, which states that electricity or electric polarity in dielectric crystals, when subjected to mechanical stress or an applied voltage, can transform the mechanical signal into an electrical signal. In theory, then, even kinesis can be converted into an electrical signal to charge a hand-held radio, a PDA or another portable device. In another example of innovators creating power from nature, researchers at Japan’s Information Technology Research Institute created the AimuletLA, an audio communication device made of bamboo that is powered by light energy, according to the institute.

Scientists are not the only ones developing new strategies for addressing alternative energy needs. Market players also are jumping into the ring. In October, the MTN Group — a wireless global trade association focused on Africa — the GSM Association and Ericsson partnered to establish bio-fuels — such as ethanol — as an alternative source of power for wireless networks in the developing world. The organizations have set up a project in Nigeria to demonstrate the potential of bio-fuels to replace diesel as a power source for mobile base stations located beyond the reach of the electric grid. But whether the initiative develops into the widespread adoption of bio-fuels — or bridges the digital divide — is yet to be seen.
— Mary Rose Roberts

2 SECURITY: Where worlds collide

The proliferation of wireless data networks and applications clearly has put innovators focused on mobile-communications data security on a collision path with so-called ethical hackers who are bent on debunking the myth of total data security — and going to great lengths to do so.

For example, researchers at the Sandia National Laboratories — a leg of the U.S. Department of Energy — recently exposed a weakness in wireless drivers. They demonstrated a fingerprinting technique that lets hackers surreptitiously identify a wireless driver used by 802.11 devices. Physical access was not necessary with some classes of drivers, including wireless cards, Ethernet cards and modems, according to Sandia. As a result, a hacker only needs to be in close proximity of a wireless device — for example, within the confines of an elevator car — to fingerprint the device’s wireless driver.

Bluetooth also has come under scrutiny. Independent security consultants Thierry Zoller and Kevin Finistere demonstrated the technology’s flaws at HackLu2006 — an ethics and security in computer science conference held in Luxembourg, Germany, in October. The consultants’ Windows-based hacking tool, dubbed BTCrack, can break Bluetooth wireless security measures almost in real time. The tool lets hackers identify a user’s Bluetooth PIN — the code that creates an authentication handshake between two devices — and the 128-bit secret link-key used to encrypt all communication. Data is then accessible to hackers.

Even the skies are vulnerable. It was widely reported in October that China beamed a ground-based laser at U.S. spy satellites over its territory, jamming communications. The action exposed the potential vulnerability of space systems tasked with providing data to U.S. government officials, scientists, military personnel and consumers.

And yet with all the security loopholes found in wireless communications, little consensus exists concerning the security measures implemented by manufacturers in their wireless devices. To address this issue, the Trusted Computing Group’s Mobile Phone Work Group in September developed security firewall standards to protect wireless devices and the data they house. The not-for-profit organization promotes open standards for hardware-enabled trusted computing and security technologies. It already has published a draft of its Mobile Trusted Module specification, which creates a security blueprint for device makers, mobile software developers and service providers. The draft specification is designed to supply the core framework, commands and control specifications needed to provide the security building blocks within a mobile phone or one embedded in a PDA, according to the group. But there is no timeline or road map thus far that identifies when and how these standards will be implemented.
— Mary Rose Roberts

7 ENTITIES TO WATCH

1. The FCC: It has a mess on its hands regarding 800 MHz rebanding, and huge decisions regarding reallocation of the 700 MHz airwaves vacated by TV broadcasters.
2. Motorola: What technology company will it gobble up next?
3. M/A-COM (and the rest of the two-way radio manufacturers): How will they deal with a 900-pound gorilla that’s getting bigger?
4. M2Z Networks: Led by former FCC Wireless Bureau chief John Muleta, it could outflank Cyren Call in the wireless broadband space.
5. Cisco Systems: As wireless voice and data continues to migrate to IP-based systems, Cisco could lead the charge of non-traditional vendors into the sector.
6. Access Spectrum: Company’s guard-band proposal could shape the usefulness of upper 700 MHz spectrum for commercial and public-safety entities.
7. Sprint Nextel: Navigating 800 MHz reconfiguration, while competing in the cutthroat commercial wireless realm will be a challenge.

3 TRACKING: What, me worry?

Tracking products and people has become commonplace as passive and active radio frequency identification, or RFID, technology becomes more widespread. Ranchers are using RFID to gather biometric data from their cattle to fend off widespread disease. Stores use it to monitor merchandise on warehouse pallets. And hospitals utilize it to keep tabs on patients and expensive medical equipment.

The U.S. government also has adopted RFID. For example, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) proposed in October to expand the use of RFID at U.S. ports of entry, in conjunction with the Department of State’s new PASSport card — part of the People Access Security Service (PASS) system designed to meet the requirements of the Western Hemisphere Travel Initiative for U.S. citizens crossing U.S. borders by land or sea. The RFID technology, as used by PASS, will let a travel document be read from several feet away as a vehicle approaches inspection. Supporters say the system will help border control agents pinpoint potential illegal entrants before they even reach the U.S. border, while letting commerce and tourism thrive.

While the promise of RFID for security purposes is compelling, there is a caveat: the technology is not immune to security breaches or from catcalling by consumer and privacy advocates who say an RFID tag attached to a passport holds key information about an individual’s identity, including a social security number. They claim hackers with means could tap into the data and use it for their own devious purposes, including identity theft. Others, however, believe the solution is as simple as inserting a thin metal substrate capable of reflecting radio waves into the passport.

Meanwhile, consumer advocates worry about the widespread use of RFID tags affixed to products. For example, products purchased from Wal-Mart have RFID tags. These tags remain functional long after purchasers bring products home. Although most, if not all tags, are passive — meaning the data is only activated when scanned by hand-held readers — fear abounds that RFID tags in the wrong hands could let others track the movement of products without the users’ knowledge or approval.

Such Big Brother-like fears have done little to stall RFID’s adoption and evolution. Market research firm IDTechEx recently reported sales of active systems including tags will increase from $550 million in 2006 to $6.78 billion in 2016. Research and Markets, a U.K.-based research firm, reported the RFID tag market currently is being driven by innovations in animal tracking and sports-related applications. According to the report, however, asset-tracking applications will see the most rapid growth in the next few years and will grow disproportionately as compared to the RFID market as a whole. Given the current rate of adoption and future predictions, RFID may soon become an everyday solution for supply-chain management, asset protection and homeland security.
— Mary Rose Roberts

7 TECHNOLOGIES TO WATCH

1. RFID: Like it or not, it’s here to stay and will have a large impact on the supply chain, border security and the medical sector.
2. Cognitive radio: Recent advances suggest the light at the end of the tunnel is approaching.
3. Video surveillance: Yes, Big Brother is watching, and so is everyone else.
4. Compression: If you can’t find wider pipes, then improvements in this arena can let data-intensive transmissions be sent.
5. Encryption: Hackers aren’t going away, and they’re getting better and more sophisticated all the time.
6. Broadband over power line: Former FCC Chairman Michael Powell saw it as a way to bring broadband to the masses; Cyren Call and M2Z Networks both might have a better way.
7. Location-based services: Whether they point consumers to the nearest store or direct first responders to a 911 caller, the applications are endless.

4 FREQUENCY AGILITY: Opening doors

The first rule of wireless is that spectrum is a necessity; after all, without it, no communication can occur. In the U.S., the second rule of wireless is that spectrum is a finite resource that perpetually is in short supply, which is why operators expend considerable money and political capital to secure each swath of airwaves.

Although virtually all airwaves on a frequency chart have been allocated, FCC officials claim only 10% of all spectrum is utilized at any given moment. Traditional wireless systems are not designed to take advantage of this fact, but technological breakthroughs in software-defined radio (SDR) and cognitive radio offer the potential for the airwaves to be used more efficiently.

SDR is a proven concept that has been used for years by the military, but the military-grade versions of the technology available today are too expensive for enterprise and commercial operators to consider. However, that paradigm is expected to change during 2007, when chip manufacturers such as BitWave and TechnoConcepts are scheduled to make affordable chipsets available that promise to simplify the design of multiband radios for the commercial market (MRT, February, page 46).

While being able to switch a radio’s operations from one band to another is attractive, the ability for the radio to do this automatically to ensure the best possible signal is the ideal situation. Virginia Tech researchers are developing an open-source software platform and a proprietary cognitive engine to make such devices a reality for public safety at an affordable price, making the technical challenges associated with interoperable communications much easier to overcome (MRT, November, page 30).

FCC officials believe cognitive radios will be available by 2010, and their arrival in the market promises to dramatically alter many long-held paradigms in the wireless industry.

If a cognitive radio can “find” and use open spectrum in any band at any given point in time, spectral availability no longer would be the barrier to entry it has been for new operators, particularly if the FCC opens the so-called “white spaces” spectrum between UHF TV channels. For those already owning licensed spectrum, the cognitive technology could generate additional revenue via secondary-market agreements.

In addition to business models, the prospect of SDR and cognitive radio in the market promises to cause other changes. In theory, frequency coordination no longer would be necessary, and longstanding notions about allocating swaths of spectrum for specific uses likely will be revisited.

One of the big questions is how these new technologies will impact the value of spectrum. Some believe cognitive radio will make spectrum easier to access, causing a shift in the supply/demand ratio that effectively could result in spectrum becoming a commodity. Others believe cognitive radio’s ability to use a given frequency more efficiently and deliver more information ultimately makes the airwaves more valuable. Either way, it should be a fascinating evolution to watch unfold.
— Donny Jackson

7 THINGS WE’D LIKE TO SEE

1. More people — especially young people — embracing the hobby of amateur radio.
2. More public-safety answering points upgrading to Phase II.
3. The FCC exerting more authority — and pressure — upon the 800 MHz reconfiguration process.
4. More industry consolidation, or at least strategic partnerships such as the one forged by ICOM, Kenwood and Trident in 2006.
5. More cooperation between public-safety agencies to develop regional consensus on interoperability, which has been sorely lacking.
6. A decision to execute a plan to make broadband available to first responders nationwide.
7. Affordable software-defined radio chips become available and a path to cognitive radio is established.

5 DISRUPTIVE TECHNOLOGY: It’s ‘show me’ time

Software-defined radio certainly is not the only long-awaited technology expected to soon make the important transition from lab curiosities to actual products. If the following potential breakthroughs can live up to their hype, the wireless world will be a much different market in the coming years.

A company expected to emerge from the testing-phase cocoon is xG Technology, which became a publicly traded company in Europe last month. More important, the Florida-based start-up’s xMAX technology is scheduled to be deployed during the first half of 2007, when licensed regional operators are supposed to utilize the low-power, long-range modulation scheme to deliver voice-over-IP (VoIP) at very low costs (MRT, September 2005).

The beauty of xMAX is that its low-power characteristics let the technology operate in unlicensed bands — in this case, the 900 MHz ISM band. Israel-based Trans Con Mobile’s wireless VoIP solution also is designed to use unlicensed spectrum — the 2.4 GHz band — to deliver cellular-like performance and range (MRT, September, page 52). Even better, the base stations featuring Trans Con Mobile’s Interference Cancellation Technology supposedly will be 90% cheaper than their cellular counterparts and will work with low-cost handsets.

Another long-awaited technology that operators can use without owning spectrum is ultrawideband (UWB). The subject of heated debates at the FCC years ago, UWB’s promise to deliver high data rates at low power has been anticipated by the industry for years, but 2007 should see the technology used in available products.

Of course, real-time applications like VoIP and video are sensitive to even the slightest delays. Help may be on the way from Kiyon Wireless, which is poised to take its ultra-fast switching technology beyond its building-automation roots. Kiyon officials claim the company’s software-based routing solution will switch signals in 1 millisecond — a quantum leap compared to the current standard of 100 milliseconds — potentially allowing latency-sensitive applications to run on multi-hop mesh networks.

Meanwhile, the bandwidth needed for video applications may decrease markedly if Euclid Discoveries’ compression scheme, dubbed EuclidVision, proves to be as good as advertised. The solution’s object-based compression technique lets EuclidVision compress full-motion video at ratios 460% higher than MPEG-4 without degrading the quality of the original video, according to company officials.

Each of these emerging technologies — should they fulfill their promise — have the potential to alter the wireless paradigm, making obsolete ideas regarding the need for dedicated spectrum and the limitations of unlicensed offerings. The next year promises to be a litmus test for these technologies, as users get the opportunity to see for themselves if the real-world products match the lab hype.
— Donny Jackson

7 THINGS WE DON’T WANT TO SEE

1. More empty promises from Congress regarding 911 funding.
2. Lengthy delays in the 800 MHz rebanding timetable.
3. More rebanding money going to lawyers and mediators instead of public-safety licensees.
4. A first responder or citizen dying because of delays in 800 MHz rebanding.
5. Congress dismissing Cyren Call’s plan without fully examining the possibilities.
6. Unnecessary loss of life and property because of a lack of interoperable communications.
7. Influential carriers and vendors taking actions to derail promising technologies in an effort to maintain their market positions.

6 CONSOLIDATION: The craze continues

One of the oldest truisms of business is, “Bigger is better.” Typically, the advantages large companies enjoy include greater resources, economies of scale and more channels for sales and distribution.

Given such advantages, it’s easy to understand the rationale behind so many commercial network operators’ decisions to combine forces to grow their respective customer bases, expand offerings and realize efficiencies. If a merger also eliminates some pesky competition, it’s an even better idea.

Mergers on the carrier front have impacted vendors, as well. With a shrinking pool of customers making all-important buying decisions, it’s only natural for equipment makers to follow a similar trend, which certainly appeared to play a role in the decision to combine telecom vendors Alcatel and Lucent Technologies, Ericsson and Marconi, and Nokia and Siemens.

While consolidations involving two companies with overlapping offerings remain possible, many recent mergers have been more strategic in nature, with the acquiring company making the deal to address a specific perceived need. Though such weaknesses can be addressed via internal development, many times it is far easier and less expensive to simply buy the expertise by acquiring a leading company in the field.

No company has embraced this strategy more than Motorola, which has completed a series of strategic acquisitions during the last few years, including this year’s $3.9 billion blockbuster purchase of Symbol Technologies to boost its enterprise-mobility product and intellectual-property portfolios (MRT, October, page 8).

Other deals announced in the last year also have filled specific needs. By combining Harris Microwave’s dominant U.S. position with Stratex Networks’ stronger global presence, the merged company promises to be a force in the wireless backhaul arena for the foreseeable future. And consolidating NetMotion and Padcom helped alleviate intellectual-property uncertainty for both companies while creating a clear market leader among independent mobile virtual private network solution providers.

Whatever the rationale, it appears likely that more consolidation will occur in 2007. In particular, if public/private partnerships for first responder networks become reality, it’s possible that traditional telecom vendors could seek expertise in the arena by acquiring traditional public-safety vendors. At the very least, more alliances such as those forged by Cisco Systems with public-safety-centric companies may be in the works.
— Donny Jackson

7 PUBLIC SAFETY: Taking center stage

Prognostication normally is an inherently uncertain proposition, but predicting that 2007 will a huge year for public-safety communications is not exactly risky business.

“I can’t remember having so many important things happening at the same time,” said Wanda McCarley, president of the Association of Public-Safety Communications Officials (APCO).

Indeed, the list of significant issues facing the emergency communications community that could be decided in the next year is remarkable. Most immediate is the massive 800 MHz rebanding project, which promises to be the subject of serious scrutiny amid requests for time extensions that would push the project well beyond the FCC’s original timetable (see story on page 8) Decisions made during the next several months will be critical in determining whether reconfiguration is finished this decade and at what cost.

Meanwhile, the nearby 700 MHz frequencies will be the focus of long-term policy decisions. As early as the first half of 2007, the FCC could sort through myriad proposals and reveal its plans for the 24 MHz of spectrum in the band that already has been earmarked for public safety.

But the most intriguing debate will center around 30 MHz of spectrum currently scheduled to be auctioned by the end of January 2008. Cyren Call Communications, led by Nextel co-founder and former chairman Morgan O’Brien, has proposed Congress order the FCC to give the spectrum to a public-safety trust, which would lease it to commercial operators obligated to build public-safety-grade networks (MRT, June, page 52).

For the plan to even be considered, Congress would have to rewrite a law passed earlier this year. Although still a long shot, the fact that the Republican party has lost control of both houses may make Capitol Hill more open to such a reversal than it would have been before the shift in power (see story on page 6).

Congress also faces other public-safety communications questions in 2007, including whether to fund 911 upgrades and full deployment of the Integrated Wireless Network project that will be trialed earlier in the year.

Meanwhile, public-safety officials will continue to wrestle with the seemingly inevitable migration to IP (see story on page 40), broadband and standards-based protocols, carefully weighing the potential of robust newer technologies against the reliability of proven systems. In addition to evaluating these technologies, public safety also will have to determine its needed level of control as opportunities to utilize commercial networks and forge public/private partnership increase rapidly.
— Donny Jackson

7 PEOPLE TO WATCH

1. Morgan O’Brien, Cyren Call Communications: His proposal for a nationwide 700 MHz broadband wireless network could change the face of public-safety communications.
2. Steve Largent, CTIA: Former congressman might have the clout to stop O’Brien before he gets started.
3. Sen. Daniel Inouye (right) and Rep. John Dingell: Influential Democrats could hold the key to the legislation Cyren Call seeks.
4. Charles Bostian, Virginia Tech: His team of researchers might have unlocked the door to affordable software-defined radio.
5. Rick Mooers, xG Technology: It’s show time for his company’s xMAX technology. If networks perform as promised, wireless may never be the same.
6. Harlin McEwen: 2007 may be the biggest year in public-safety communications history; his representation of first responders will be critical to Capitol Hill success
7. David Furth, FCC: He’s charged with improving the 800 MHz rebanding process, although his exact role is not clearly apparent to observers.