LMR licensing activity at all-time low levels, according to FCC’s online database
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LMR licensing activity at all-time low levels, according to FCC’s online database
Demand for spectrum to support U.S. land-mobile-radio (LMR) networks is at its lowest level since 2001, with the number of license approvals projected to drop by more than 50% since the 2013 narrowbanding deadline and by more than 40% during the past two years, according to statistics from the FCC’s Universal Licensing System (ULS) online database.
During 2013—the year after frequency coordinators processed record numbers of approved applications to as licensees sought to meet the narrowbanding deadline at the end of 2012—the FCC granted 29,741 applications for business-industrial and public-safety LMR uses, according to the ULS database. Through the first half of this year, only 6,698 frequency applications for these sectors were granted.
If this first-half approval total is duplicated during the second half of the year, the projected total of license approvals would represent a 55.1% decrease from the 2013 licensing level and a 40.4% drop since 2015. However, the number of frequency applications granted has decreased noticeably during the second half of each of the last four years.
Even if the second-half approval totals match the numbers for the first half of the year, they would represent all-time lows on the ULS online system. The projected total of public-safety LMR licenses would be an 10.4% below the 2001 figure of 3,530. Meanwhile, the business-industrial estimate would be 10.9% below the 11,256 total in 2009. The ULS online database does not provide full-year statistics prior to 2001.
While there is still time for a second-half turnaround in LMR licensing activity this year, a lackluster July—when the FCC approved just 206 business-industrial applications and 26 public-safety applications during the first 25 days of the month—has not provided seeds of encouragement.
Although various LMR industry sources have offered multiple potential explanations, the downward trend in approved new and modified LMR licenses is troublesome to Ralph Haller, executive director for the Forestry Conservation Communications Association (FCCA), a certified public-safety frequency coordinator.
“I really am concerned about the future of the land-mobile industry, given the trend,” Haller said during an interview with IWCE’s Urgent Communications. “It’s a little less than half of what was done four years ago. Each year, the number has gone down. So, the trend is down, in both business-industrial and public safety.
“I kind of thought, ‘Well, is FirstNet the issue?’ I don’t think so. Maybe some [of the decrease can be attributed to the promise of FirstNet], but not entirely, because the business-industrial side is down, as well.”
Haller said it is “not likely” that public-safety agencies or enterprises are simply foregoing the use of wireless communications, so he believes there is a movement to cellular technologies and/or that entities are “just letting whatever they have now run, and they’re not doing anything to upgrade or install new systems.”
If accurate, this proved to be a dangerous approach to take, particularly for public-safety agencies, Haller said.
“When you really have to get a message through, and there’s an emergency, it’s the LMR networks that work and not the others,” he said. “My concern is that people—at least on the public-safety side—are looking to eventually be on FirstNet, and, therefore, they’re letting their current systems run without any attention.
“At some point, those systems are going to begin to fail, and they’re going to be stuck with, ‘Well, FirstNet’s not ready for us yet, and our system has just gone out. What do we do?’ I think that’s the awareness that people need to be sensitized to, at least on the public-safety side.”
Is there are data on “new” vs
Is there are data on “new” vs “renewals”? Otherwise this article in nonsense.
Renewals do not need
Renewals do not need (usually) frequency coordination. Thus, I presume that Donny is speaking about New and Modified systems. Hope that this helps!
With everyone having some
With everyone having some sort of cellular phone nowadays, those that use mobile radio is naturally going to decline. Mission Critical networks can’t rely on cellular phones, and need LRM to exist, but for many entities, they are treated as a backup to the cellphone, and not the primary. I see the shift to simple LMR networks that provide basic backup services, and not elaborate systems, which are too expensive constantly nowadays with expensive manufacturer mandated upgrades.
What about year-over-year
What about year-over-year sales? As noted, what about “new” vs. “renewals” vs. “new replacing old”?
I am reasonably confident that business / industrial folks are asking themselves if a small LMR system is still worth it or not. I am not sure that public safety is there yet.
I believe that one thing not
I believe that one thing not accounted for here are the number of licensees, particularly (but not exclusively) public safety that received new systems as part of 800 MHz rebanding. And then, the number of systems that were replaced by public safety and B/ILT in the 150/450 MHz bands back in the early part of this decade means that, for manufacturers, there were a lot of sales grouped together in a small period of time (relatively). With so much new equipment (although not necessarily new systems) coming online in the recent past, we’ll have to wait for this generation of equipment to “age-out” before those numbers grow again.
I believe this whole “all
I believe this whole “all time low” argument to be bogus — spectrum is just as densely packed right now as it has been ever; I’ve got 10+ customers seeking licensed frequencies; but there are no available assignments. Compile the fact that most customers are moving towards balanced-for-portable simulcast infrastructure and the interference contours become much more complicated than legacy “stick on the hill” type coordination. Also consider that a single license grant may actually contain 15+ transmitter locations! Just because the number of ‘grants’ is lower doesn’t mean the number ‘pending’ isn’t accumulating.
I still hope we have a day where we can re-pack VHF High band & fix all the long-standing problems