In the early days of hurricane season, experts predict a busy year; communities should prepare

From the Capitol riot in January to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine a few months later, and the recent series mass shootings, it’s been a busy news year to say the least—so much is happening in the present that it takes effort to consider what the future will hold. But while the 24-hour news cycle continues its daily churn, there’s a lot happening on the seasonal clock.

Local administrators should take notice.

June 1 marked the beginning of hurricane season, which runs through Nov. 30. Forecasters at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center are projecting another above-normal 2022 Atlantic hurricane season—the seventh busier-than-average season in a row. The center is forecasting “a likely range of 14 to 21 named storms (winds of 39 miles per hour or higher), of which six to 10 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 miles per hour or higher), including three to six major hurricanes (category three, four or five; with winds of 111 miles per hour or higher),” according to a brief from the federal administration. 

“As we reflect on another potentially busy hurricane season, past storms—such as Superstorm Sandy, which devastated the New York metro area 10 years ago—remind us that the impact of one storm can be felt for years,” said Rick Spinrad, Ph.D., administrator of NOAA. “Since Sandy, NOAA’s forecasting accuracy has continued to improve, allowing us to better predict the impacts of major hurricanes to lives and livelihoods.” 

Notably, the outlook is for seasonal activity, overall, and isn’t a landfall forecast. It’s the continuation of a trend that’s picked up in the last decade. Last year marked the third-most active Atlantic hurricane season on record, producing 21 named storms that inflicted an estimated $80 billion and killed nearly 200 people. Twenty-twenty is the most active season on record, and after that is 2005.

“Hurricane Ida spanned nine states, demonstrating that anyone can be in the direct path of a hurricane and in danger from the remnants of a storm system,” said FEMA Administrator Deanne Criswell. “It’s important for everyone to understand their risk and take proactive steps to get ready.” 

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