What could go wrong? Here are some sources of potential unwanted delays in FirstNet deployment

Whether that scenario really would be an antitrust problem is the big question, and there does not seem to be an obvious answer—I have spoken with smart people familiar with the situation who make very persuasive arguments on both sides of the debate. While there was disagreement on the likely outcome, all sources noted that it is impossible to make informed judgments right now, when we don’t know whether AT&T will win the bid, how AT&T’s FirstNet proposal is structured or what conditions AT&T might accept in the Time Warner transaction.

When asked whether AT&T was concerned whether a successful FirstNet bid might be impacted by regulatory scrutiny of the Time Warner, a company spokesperson declined to comment, citing the fact that the FirstNet procurement is still active (a very understandable response).

I am pretty confident that the public-safety community typically does not care about antitrust issues, if any exist. However, first responders do not want the long-awaited FirstNet system to be delayed unnecessarily because it became entangled in an extended antitrust debate.

Some public-safety sources have expressed concern that AT&T may be stretching its vast-but-not-unlimited financial resources thin, which could mean that the carrier giant has fewer resources to devote to the FirstNet effort. But many of those same sources said they also have been concerned about the finances associated with the bid from Rivada Mercury, which is led by a company that is dwarfed in size when compared to AT&T and is expected to be a leading competitor for Mexico’s nationwide wholesale LTE procurement this year.

Once again, whether either of the publicly acknowledged bids has financial issues cannot be properly assessed from the outside. Both offeror teams include many partners, and we do not know what financial role those partners may play in the overall financial picture. FirstNet’s RFP includes language that clearly notes that the financial aspect of bids will be scrutinized by the evaluation team, so this aspect should be addressed.

Finally, there is a ton of political speculation, particularly as we make an administration change in January following next week’s elections. All kinds of intriguing conspiracy theories have surfaced—based on all sorts of premises, including partisan politics, power plays, states-rights issues, market interests and alleged personality conflicts—but the evidence I’ve heard on these to date make them little more than rumors.

Personally, my biggest political fear is more straightforward. At this point in the election cycle, a lot of government employees are looking for the next job or are being replaced. My concern is that some government people involved in the final steps of the procurement process—key staffers, lawyers, appointed/elected officials or others—might get pulled away from the FirstNet initiative and replaced by new folks who are not familiar with the situation, which could result in unwanted delays.

Although all of these scenarios are possible, hopefully none of them will happen. The progress that FirstNet has made during the past two years has been impressive, and it would be a shame for the momentum to be stopped. Public safety has waited for this network long enough, and it is important that this longtime vision become a reality.