`2001: A Space Odyssey’
It’s here. That infamous year that was saluted on film with the fantasies of Arthur C. Clarke and Stanley Kubrick: tool-wielding monkeys, mad computers, space cowboys and a big monolith that could neither be climbed nor penetrated. Speaking of the FCC … (rim shot).
This is the first baby step of that century that everybody’s been talking about for what seems like a century. Over the last two years, the media have focused on the best and worst of the last 100 years or 1,000 years. Was Hitler a nastier guy than Stalin? Was Einstein more important than Ray Kroc? Who got richer, the guy who invented the transistor or the lady who penned “Happy Birthday”?
Deluged by historical measurements, we have ranked and rated just about everyone from Attila the Hun to the Pillsbury Dough Boy. And what does it mean? It means we’re done looking back. It’s time to look forward. We’ve put that tired, old century to bed along with its beat-up millennium, and it’s time to look to the future to determine what we think might happen.
Now, there is no way that I, sitting alone, can hope to read every tea leaf in the cup. Despite what my firm’s brochure says, I am neither all-knowing nor all-seeing. Those adjectives are reserved for my wife. So, I’m going to need some help from the readers. Polish up your crystal balls and answer these questions. MRT will publish the answers, and we will see just how good you are at predicting the future.
For example, will there be a new release of federal government spectrum to feed the appetite of the already “over-bandwidthed” public corporations that sprout like morning mushrooms at every sound of a gavel at the FCC? Will NTT and AT&T get together to deliver a viable wireless Internet service?
If you’re into people, how about predicting one of these? Will we see Reed Hundt emerging again in another government job where he can continue to find ways to eviscerate the antitrust laws? Will Bill Kennard stay at his post, or bolt for private industry? And how many commissioners will be left after a new administration is installed? Only two have unfulfilled terms.
Into Wall Street? There’s plenty to speculate about there, too. For example, will another major paging company file one of those “chapter” things? Will Nextel’s stock turn the corner and begin a slow rise, or will it continue to hover in the $28-$35 range? Will MCI Worldcom continue to shudder under its own weight?
Will AT&T445SUCCESS? There’s no end to the number and kinds of events that your crystal ball might conjure. Who knows what you will see when the smoke clears? Frankly, your guess is probably about as good as anyone else’s.
Here are a few predictions I’m willing to make. See if you agree.
During 2001, the following will or will not happen:
1.Not one lease will be entered into between a 700MHz band manager and another living soul that will result in the construction of a single facility.
2.The FCC will have at least one auction overturned by the courts, preferably the 800MHz SMR auction.
3.The price of a digital television receiver will fall to around $500 as the novelty comes closer to reality, and the airwaves will be filled with ads urging people to buy them as Father’s Day gifts.
4.Some company will try to become a mini-Nextel by attempting to consolidate UHF trunking channels and facilities.
5.There will be a new feeding frenzy for 900MHz trunked channels as speculators move onto that band to play “Let’s Make A Deal.”
6.The tower industry will see the emergence of a new, important player.
7.In a combined operation, OSHA and the FCC Enforcement Bureau will choose some pigeon to fine the bezookies out of for violation of the RF exposure rules and standards.
8.Local number portability will continue to be more theory than reality because none of the LECs can figure out how to make a buck out of it.
OK. That was eight predictions, and I didn’t even break a sweat. Just let your mind wander from the possible to the probable and back again. Suddenly, you look like Cleo at “the Psychic Hotline.” Mind you, these predictions are a little on the staid side. When you’re ready for the advanced version of our game, you can try some like these:
o By the end of the year there will be a new rock band on the charts called “Pregnant Chad.”
o Archeologists will uncover an ancient tablet buried near the pyramids, which, when translated reads, “Only the Pharaoh owns the radio spectrum.”
o At least one urban parachuter will attempt to jump from a tower in a videotaped stunt. Unfortunately, the jumper will choose a hot AM tower.
o The political-correctness police will move in on the industry, outlawing the use of the word “yagi.” Their leader, Wanda Butzwright, will be quoted as saying, “It just sounds dirty.”
Now that I’ve got you hooked, let’s see what you think about one real question. With the combined knowledge and wisdom of the MRT readership, we should get a pretty good idea what to expect. Email us at mrtintertec.com between Jan. 1 and Jan. 31 and record your “vote” about this one. We’ll publish the results on the MRT Web site, www.mrtmag.com, as soon as they are tallied, and we’ll also publish them in this column in the March issue of MRT.
Choose the event most likely to happen in 2001:
A.Additional spectrum below 1,000MHz will be released by the federal government for use by private industry.
B.The FCC will adopt rules creating “band managers” for all of the shared VHF and UHF private radio spectrum.
C.The FCC’s Universal License System will crash, leaving the public without access for as long as two weeks.
Sometime in 2001 you’ll be able to record your responses to other questions I will pose here directly on the Web site. We’ll look forward to your views. Meanwhile, have a prosperous New Year.